"Boards should first recognise that decisive break with the past" slashes STAPLES
"Boards should first recognise that decisive break with the past" slashes STAPLES
At the Singapore Strategic Seminar hosted by the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business, Dr. Andrew Staples offered a sharp and timely assessment of how escalating geopolitical tensions are reshaping corporate strategy across Asia. Founder of GeoPol Asia, he advises business leaders at the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and corporate strategy. Former Global Editorial Director of The Economist Corporate Network and currently Senior Advisor (Geopolitics) at Vriens & Partners, Dr. Staples brings a rare blend of analytical insight and executive acumen. In this interview, he discusses how Donald Trump’s return to the White House is reverberating through Southeast Asian supply chains, why the era of “business as usual” is over, and how companies can reposition themselves amid trade fragmentation, techno-industrial rivalry, and rising political conditionality. His core message to CEOs: don’t wait for clarity—build resilience, rewire your risk assessments, and seize strategic opportunities in a world that rewards agility and foresight.
Dr. Andrew STAPLES
With President Trump back in office and trade tensions once again escalating, how are Southeast Asian supply chains adapting to the renewed volatility in global trade? What strategies do you see Asian CEOs adopting in response to this environment?
Andrew STAPLES - At the moment, many are essentially adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach until they receive some clarity around the tariff regime. Certainly some firms will be undertaking research and/or conducting some scenario analysis in preparation but there is currently too much uncertainty to trigger concrete actions such as making investment decisions, especially large scale capex decisions.
In the context of broad-based U.S. tariff policies and shifting trade alliances, how are business leaders in Asia reassessing their export strategies, production hubs, and commercial partnerships, especially in relation to North American markets??
A.S. - Yes, see above response. There is a clear expectation that the current US administration wishes to see Chinese content taken out of supply chains for products that ultimately end up in the US. The is especially the case for those firms in anything considered sensitive, dual use or somehow related to US economic security. It is also common to hear that there is a basis towards investing in the US.
As the U.S.–China rivalry intensifies across technology, energy, and raw materials, what should Southeast Asian firms prioritize to remain competitive and avoid being sidelined in fragmented or bifurcating global value chains??
A.S. - ‘Control what you can’ is something of a mantra in the region at the moment. That is, firms have very little or no influence over Mr Trump but they can control what takes place within their own organisations. These activities include seeking more a more granular understanding of their supply chains in terms of risk and resilience, strengthening their agility through accelerating digital transformations and things like cost control (travel, pay, recruitment). Some firms and governments will increasingly face difficult choices with regards to the US and China.
Several ASEAN economies have been drawn into the global tariff crossfire or subject to policy shifts affecting investment flows. What forms of public-private collaboration are emerging in the region to manage these pressures and build long-term resilience?
A.S. - It would be good for ASEAN to look at ways in which they can strengthen the intra-regional SEAN economy. There is no shortage of non trade barriers to be addressed. Doing so would stimulate intra-regional trade and, collectively, improve the region's economic resilience. Firms and governments should accelerate efforts to reduce barriers to trade.
With Washington’s renewed focus on transactional diplomacy and shifting expectations within security and economic partnerships, how should Asian CEOs rethink their geopolitical risk assessments and prepare for increased political conditionality in their external relations?
A.S. - Boards and business leaders should first recognise that there has been a decisive break with the past. The assumptions that underpinned globalisation over the past 40 years have broken down. Waiting for things to ‘get back to normal’ is not a credible or viable strategy. Business has become increasingly poiticised in recent years. We have, for example, seen governments (China in particular, and more recently the US) resort to geoeconomic measures. Governments are increasingly turning to so-called ‘new’ industrial policy as well. Firms need to develop a much sharper understanding of these matters and take appropriate actions.
Despite the challenging global context, do you see areas where Southeast Asian companies could benefit—by attracting reallocated investment, forging new technological alliances, or positioning themselves as neutral players in an era of great power rivalry?
A.S. - There will always be opportunities to exploit. Vietnam was perhaps the main beneficiary of the China +1 strategy. Under Trump 1.0, locations like Malaysia and Bangladesh also benefited from shifting supply chains in response to geopolitical developments. The same will happen again. As per the first response, these activities will accelerate only when actors have greater clarity about the US tariff regime. Although most actors (State and non-state) claim that they do not wish to choose between the US and China, in some areas, like tech and AI, it will be increasingly difficult not to. Bigger economies - like India and Indonesia - may have more agency to do this. Other will want to be seen as ‘connector’ economies.
ABOUT DR. ANDREW STAPLES
Dr Staples is the Founder and Principal of GeoPol Asia, a boutique advisory service operating at the intersection of geopolitics, business and strategy. He previously held senior editorial roles at The Economist Group including Editorial Director at Economist Impact, and Global Editorial Director of The Economist Corporate Network—the Economist Intelligence Unit’s briefing and advisory service. Andrew is the Singapore CEO and Asia Management Forum chair for IMA Asia, a Senior Advisor (Geopolitics) at Vriens & Partners, and an Associate Fellow (Geo-economics and strategy) at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). He also serves on the advisory board of the Hinrich Foundation.
The ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business was created in 2024 to help companies and leaders navigate a world of geopolitical disruption, economic fragmentation, and strategic uncertainty.
We examine how global power shifts transform business models, how firms are becoming geopolitical actors, and how corporate strategies must adapt to the end of business as usual.
Rooted in ESSEC’s academic excellence in Cergy-Paris, Rabat and Singapore, the Institute draws on three flagship centers:
the IRENE Center for Negotiation & Mediation,
the Center for Geopolitics, Defense & Leadership, and
the Center for European Law & Economics.