“CEOs Need Their Own Geopolitical War Rooms” according to Prof. Aurélien COLSON

As NATO leaders met this week in The Hague to strengthen their collective deterrence posture, one strategic lesson emerges with clarity: in times of global disruption, anticipation is power. In this interview, Prof. Aurélien Colson — Academic Co-Director of the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business and Co-Director of its Center for Geopolitics, Defense & Leadership — explains why CEOs must adopt a military-grade approach to foresight. In an age of weaponized interdependence and systemic shocks, geopolitical vigilance is no longer optional. It’s a condition for corporate survival.

Prof. Aurélien COLSON

Professor Colson, you draw a parallel between military and corporate leadership. Why should CEOs pay attention to what’s happening at the NATO summit?

Aurélien COLSON - Because the strategic logic on display at NATO today applies far beyond the battlefield. Military planners are reaffirming a fundamental truth: strategy without foresight is blind. They are doubling down on anticipatory analysis — not just in conventional theaters, but across cyberspace, outer space, and the Indo-Pacific. CEOs and CFOs, too, face a world marked by deep instability. Boardrooms don’t command armies, but they are exposed to the same systemic shocks: trade wars, sanctions, weaponized dependencies. The brutalization of international affairs is now a core challenge for global business. So yes — it’s time corporate leaders start thinking, and acting, like security actors.

But most companies already have risk departments. Why go further and build foresight capabilities?

A.C. - Because traditional corporate strategy still assumes a baseline of stability. Yes, crises happen — but the assumption is often that things will “return to normal.” That assumption is crumbling. The war in Ukraine shattered energy markets. U.S.–China tensions are rewiring digital and industrial alliances. Red Sea attacks have slashed shipping volumes by 60% in some corridors. Meanwhile, 70+ countries are holding elections this year, creating political volatility on an unprecedented scale. In this environment, risk management isn’t enough. Businesses need strategic foresight — not to predict the future, but to prepare for multiple futures.

Are some companies already taking this path? Can you share a few examples?

A.C. - Yes, and it’s encouraging. At a recent executive roundtable we hosted at the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business, a major European energy firm explained how it has created a “geopolitical resilience cell” reporting directly to its board. Another multinational in agribusiness now incorporates military-grade risk mapping into sourcing strategies. Some companies go further: hiring ex-intelligence officers, embedding scenario planning in annual reviews, or appointing new roles — like a Chief Geopolitics Officer. This is not science fiction. It’s an organizational response to a strategic reality.

What exactly can businesses learn from the way militaries practice foresight?

A.C. - Three things. First: methodology. Armed forces use robust tools — REDTEAM analysis, horizon scanning, wargaming — to surface blind spots and stress-test plans. These methods are structured, iterative, and collaborative. Businesses can adopt and adapt them. Second: culture. For the military, foresight is not a one-off report. It’s a mindset — where uncomfortable truths are faced, doctrines updated, teams trained accordingly. For companies, that means embedding foresight as a strategic reflex, not a compliance checkbox. Third: decision-making under uncertainty. Militaries never wait for perfect information. They act under ambiguity. The concept of “strategic ambiguity” used in NATO doctrine has a corporate parallel: staying agile and scenario-ready in a fractured world.

Some will say companies aren’t states. Isn’t it dangerous for boardrooms to get into geopolitics?

A.C. - That’s a false debate. The point is not whether boardrooms want to engage geopolitically — it’s that geopolitics is already engaging them. Through cyber-attacks, ESG politicization, sanctions, and investment restrictions. Ignoring it is not a neutral act. It’s a liability. Some critics may argue that foresight is speculative or too costly. But ask any general: foresight may be expensive — surprise is always more so.

What’s your final message to corporate leaders in this age of global disruption?

A.C. - We need to move from shock to structure. NATO is right to build anticipatory capacity. Businesses must do the same. That means training teams to think in geopolitical terms. Creating hybrid advisory boards. Investing in functions that don’t just monitor risk — but imagine rupture. In the era of strategic polycrisis, resilience begins with imagination. And imagination, like deterrence, needs leadership, structure, and commitment at the top. The question is not whether companies should behave like governments — but whether they are ready to survive in a world where geopolitics is part of the business model.

ABOUT PROF. AURÉLIEN COLSON

Aurélien COLSON is Professor of Political Science at ESSEC Business School where he heads the Academic Department of Law, Political Science and Society. He is the Academic Co-Director of the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business, the Director of the IRENE Center for Negotiation & Mediation and the Co-Director of the Center for Geopolitics, Defense & Leadership.

ABOUT THE ESSEC INSTITUTE FOR GEOPOLITICS & BUSINESS

The ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business was created in 2024 to help companies and leaders navigate a world of geopolitical disruption, economic fragmentation, and strategic uncertainty.

We examine how global power shifts transform business models, how firms are becoming geopolitical actors, and how corporate strategies must adapt to the end of business as usual.

Rooted in ESSEC’s academic excellence in Cergy-Paris, Rabat and Singapore, the Institute draws on three flagship centers:

• the IRENE Center for Negotiation & Mediation,

• the Center for Geopolitics, Defense & Leadership, and

• the Center for European Law & Economics.

Together, they bridge cutting-edge research, executive education, and strategic foresight.

Our ambition: to empower geopolitics-fit leaders and build resilient, vigilant organizations for an age of global brutalization.